发布日期：2025-10-09 15:20点击次数：92
这笔交易的宣布令专家和前部长们感到困惑，他们表示并未发现任何未开发储备的迹象
本周，美国与巴基斯坦之间新建立的友好关系得到了充分展现。唐纳德·特朗普在椭圆形办公室热情接待了巴基斯坦总理夏巴兹·谢里夫和该国实权派陆军参谋长阿西姆·穆尼尔，并盛赞二人为“伟大的领导人”。
在连续几届美国总统的冷落后，这是六年来巴基斯坦总理首次受邀访问华盛顿。同样前所未有的是，今年穆尼尔——这位并无政府官方职务的人士——第二次与特朗普举行私下会晤。许多人将此视为一个明确信号，揭示了巴基斯坦真正掌握交易决策权的所在。
伊斯兰堡在特朗普连任后对其展开魅力攻势，具体措施包括向美国移交阿富汗境内"伊斯兰国"分支组织的一名重要成员，并公开赞扬这位美国总统为防止印巴敌对行动升级为全面战争所作的努力，甚至因其贡献提名特朗普角逐诺贝尔和平奖。
然而最引人注目的，是巴基斯坦向美国推介其号称尚未开发的自然资源——包括石油、矿产和天然气——以供勘探。7月，特朗普在其社交媒体平台"真相社交"上发文称："我们刚刚与巴基斯坦达成协议，两国将共同开发其庞大的石油储备。目前我们正在遴选主导该合作的石油公司。"
美国驻伊斯兰堡临时代办娜塔莉·贝克向当地媒体证实了这一消息，她表示美国企业正“对巴基斯坦的石油、天然气和矿产领域表现出浓厚兴趣，这符合唐纳德·特朗普总统的愿景”。
巴基斯坦已从其石油承诺中获益。去年8月达成协议后，特朗普政府给予巴基斯坦进口商品19%的优惠关税税率，这一税率在南亚国家中最低，且远低于其邻国兼竞争对手印度所面临的50%惩罚性关税。
本月，美国宣布了一项价值5亿美元（约合3.7亿欧元）的投资协议，将资金注入巴基斯坦新兴的矿产领域——包括铜和稀土资源。尽管该国矿产储量的确切数据尚不明确，但此项合作仍得以推进。
然而，正是石油前景的承诺让专家和前政府部长们更加困惑。他们强调，尽管多年来全球各大石油公司一直在巴基斯坦勘探，但并无可靠证据表明该国存在任何可观的未开发石油储量。
巴基斯坦石油有限公司（PPL）地质学家、前董事总经理莫因·拉扎·汗表示，该公司一直处于石油勘探的前沿。他说：“特朗普关于巴基斯坦拥有大量石油储备的说法与现实毫无关系。这一说法没有任何数据或证据支持。我们甚至不知道这些巨大的储备在哪里，因为我们迄今为止没有任何调查和研究能够证明这一点。”
专家汗指出，尽管巴基斯坦在陆地和海上进行了长达半个多世纪的勘探与钻探，但至今未发现具有大规模商业开采价值的油田。虽然已探明一些小型石油储藏，其日产量约为6.5万桶。相比之下，沙特阿拉伯的年产量高达约40亿桶。
关于巴基斯坦有望成为石油国家的宣言早已不是首次出现。该国80%以上的石油依赖进口，这是国库最大的消耗之一，历届领导人因此不断推动石油勘探。
**汗**强调，多年来已有包括道达尔、壳牌和埃克森美孚在内的30多家国际公司怀着找油的希望来到巴基斯坦，但最终因勘探成本高、安全风险大且回报低而选择撤离。
2015年，美国能源管理局的一项调查估计，巴基斯坦印度河下游盆地可能拥有90亿桶“技术上可开采的石油”。巴基斯坦石油国务部长阿里·佩尔韦兹·马利克（Ali Pervaiz Malik）近期曾援引此项调查。
然而，这项调查结果遭到石油公司的质疑。2019年，跨国石油巨头埃克森美孚和埃尼集团与巴基斯坦石油有限公司（PPL）合作，在近海勘探油气资源。但在耗费逾1亿美元钻探Kekra-1 Indus G区块后，除水层外一无所获。
在近期石油勘探失败期间担任巴基斯坦石油有限公司（PPL）负责人的**汗**表示：“迄今为止仅发现了12亿桶石油——这微不足道——但他们却声称未来三年内就能找到百倍于此的储量。”
“这根本不可能。没有魔法棒能凭空增加巴基斯坦的外汇储备。”
巴基斯坦石油部拒绝就本国石油储备问题置评。
尽管缺乏任何新证据，该国仍积极推进40个海上和31个陆上油气勘探区块的开发，这些区块将于10月31日授标。受邀参与竞标的企业中包括美国公司。
巴基斯坦石油部前联邦秘书、石油特许权前总干事加·阿·萨布里（GA Sabri）将所谓巨大石油储量的说法称为“政治噱头”，并对此次石油区块拍卖的成功表示怀疑。
据称，巴基斯坦大量未开发的石油和天然气储量主要分布在开伯尔-普什图省和俾路支省。这些地区正遭受塔利班和分离主义武装分子的叛乱活动，外国企业在此也屡屡成为袭击目标。
萨布里表示：“在探索新领域时，存在较高的安全风险。”
他强调称，"即便美国现在就开始钻探，至少也需要二三十年的时间及数亿美元资金来完成勘探工作，而且谁也无法保证一定能发现储量。"
萨布里表示，巴基斯坦陆上石油钻探的成功堪称“奇迹”。
Announcement of deal baffles experts and former ministers, who say there is no sign of any untapped reserves
The newfound camaraderie between the US and Pakistan was on full display this week as Donald Trump welcomed Pakistans prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, and the countrys powerful army chief, Asim Munir, into the Oval Office, heralding them both as great leaders.
Having been cold-shouldered by successive US presidents, this was the first time a Pakistani prime minister had been invited to Washington in more than six years. It was also the unprecedented second time this year that Munir C who holds no official government role C held an intimate meeting with Trump, which many took as a telling signal of where the power to cut deals really lies in Pakistan .
Islamabads charm offensive with Trump since his re-election has included handing over to the US a high profile member of Islamic States affiliate in Afghanistan and publicly crediting the US president with preventing hostilities between India and Pakistan escalating into all-out war, even nominating Trump for the Nobel peace prize for his efforts.
Yet what has appeared most effective is Pakistans touting of its allegedly untapped natural resources C namely oil, minerals and gas C for US exploration. In July, Trump wrote on his social media platform Truth Social that we have just concluded a Deal with the Country of Pakistan, whereby Pakistan and the United States will work together on developing their massive Oil Reserves. We are in the process of choosing the Oil Company that will lead this Partnership.
The messaging was affirmed by Natalie Baker, the US charg daffaires in Islamabad, who told local media that US firms had been showing keen interest in Pakistans oil, gas and mineral sectors, in line with President Donald Trumps vision.
Pakistan has already reaped rewards from its promise of oil. After an agreement in August, Trump gave Pakistan a generous 19% tariff on imported goods, the lowest of all south Asia nations and far below the punitive 50% tariffs that its neighbour and nemesis India is facing.
This month, a $500m (05370m) deal for the US to invest in Pakistans nascent minerals sector C including copper and rare earths C was announced, despite a lack of definitive data on the countrys mineral reserves.
Yet it is the promise of oil that has left experts and former government ministers even more baffled. They stress that there is no reliable proof that Pakistan has any substantive, untapped oil reserves, despite years of the worlds biggest oil companies attempting to find them.
Moin Raza Khan, a geoscientist and former managing director at Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL), which has been at the forefront of oil exploration, said: What Trump is claiming about Pakistans massive oil reserves has nothing to do with reality. It is without the support of any data or evidence. We dont even know where these massive reserves would be, as we dont have any surveys and studies so far that show us.
Khan was among the experts who emphasised that despite more than half a century of exploration and drilling onshore and offshore, no large-scale commercially viable oil wells had been discovered on Pakistani soil. While some small oil repositories had been found, they produce about 65,000 barrels a day. In comparison, Saudi Arabia produces about 4bn barrels a year.
This is far from the first time that proclamations have been made about Pakistans potential as a petrostate. The country imports more than 80% of its oil, which is one of the biggest drains on the state coffers, prompting successive leaders to make a push for oil exploration.
Khan emphasised that over the years, more than 30 international companies, including Total, Shell and ExxonMobil, had come to Pakistan with the hope of finding oil, but had eventually left due to the high cost and security risk of exploration and low reward.
In 2015, a survey by the US energy administration estimated that the lower Indus basin in Pakistan could have 9bn barrels of technically recoverable oil, a survey that was recently referenced by Pakistans minister of state for petroleum, Ali Pervaiz Malik.
However, that survey has been called into question by oil companies. In 2019, the multinational oil corporations ExxonMobil and Eni worked with PPL to find oil and gas reserves offshore. But after spending more than $100m drilling the Kekra-1 Indus G block, nothing was found except a waterbed.
Khan, who headed PPL during the recent failed oil exploration, said: A total of only 1.2bn barrels of oil have been discovered so far C which is nothing C and they are claiming they can find 100 times this in just the next three years.
Its just impossible. There is no magic wand to multiply Pakistans reserves.
Islamabads ministry of petroleum declined to comment on questions about Pakistans oil reserves.
Despite the lack of any new evidence, the country is pressing ahead with 40 new offshore and 31 onshore blocks for oil and gas exploration, which will be awarded on 31 October. US companies are among those invited for bidding.
GA Sabri, a former federal secretary at the ministry of petroleum and former director general petroleum concession, described the claims of massive oil reserves as a political gimmick and was sceptical about the success of the oil block auction.
Much of Pakistans alleged untapped oil and gas reserves are said to be in the regions of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, which are in the midst of insurgencies by Taliban and separatist militants and where foreign companies have been routinely targeted.
Sabri said: When it comes to exploration of new fields, there are high security risks.
He emphasised that even if the US does the drilling and starts now, it will take at least two to three decades and hundreds of millions of dollars to do this exploration C and nobody can say for sure reserves will be found.
Sabri said the success of Pakistans onshore oil drilling was nothing short of a myth.